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Sarah Palin is not a “hockey mom”.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Sarah Palin Is Not a Hockey Mom.

This has been my favourite blog of this campaign year. It has had unparelleled ntelligent polling and commentary on the current political situation in the US.  The guy behind the blog is Nate Silver of baseballprospectus.com fame.  

Silver, 30, is already celebrated among ball fans for inventing something called PECOTA. Developed while the University of Chicago econ alum slogged through a post-collegiate consulting gig—”I’m used to not sleeping,” he tells NEWSWEEK—PECOTA is now recognized as the most accurate system for forecasting how athletes and teams will perform in the future (down to the number of singles). In 2007, Silver’s algorithm enraged at least half of Chicago when it said the White Sox—2005 champs—would post a 72–90 record. Turned out PECOTA was exactly right. For laypeople, the leap from the national pastime to national politics might seem like a stretch. But not for Silver (who posted his first political item on Daily Kos in October). “Baseball and politics are data-driven,” he’s written. “But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result.” In other words, different sport—same skill set.

I only wish I were as smart as Mr. Silver.

This entry about Palin (not written by Silver) is one that I hope a lot of Dems are paying attention to.  If there was ever a time that the Dems were going to pay attention to Jesus’s mandate to turn the other cheek and take the high road, that time is now.  As Ghandi famously said, “An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.”  If Palin and the Repubs continue to go negative and angry, the American people are going to get tired of it fairly quickly.

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This entry was posted on Sunday, September 7th, 2008 at 4:05 am and is filed under Current Events. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

8 Responses to “Sarah Palin is not a “hockey mom”.”

  1. Tracy Says:
    September 7th, 2008 at 9:20 am

    This was a really thought-provoking article, Jonah…thanks for posting it. However, I don’t see the benefit in letting outright lies go unchecked. I agree that Dems need to not jump on the negative train just because the Republicans embrace it, but they also need to show enough strength to point out, THAT is a lie, and THAT is a LIE! Because otherwise, the American public will swallow up all those lies without so much as a thought.

  2. jonah Says:
    September 7th, 2008 at 1:38 pm

    I agree Tracy, they do not need to let outright lies go unchecked. I don’t think that is what the article is saying. What the Obama campaign (I think they are doing it) and Dems at large (who I think are probably not doing it so well) is to not let the campaign become about the lies.

    Bases of both parties are either going to believe the lies unquestioningly or reject them outright, even if there are traces of truth in them which may need to be considered thoughtfully. None of this blather is going to sway them either way. And if both candidates consolidate their bases 100%, guess who wins? I think you know already.

    Who I am most concerned about are the undecided and the independents. They are where this campaign is going to be won or lost. I think if the Dems come out all worked up into a bother about this, it is going to turn those two sectors off and send them drifting toward McCain/Palin. What the Dems do need to do is speak the truth and call a lie a lie, no doubt about it. But they don’t need to get rattled or afraid and start going into insecure-emergency-mode. Just stay calm, stand for truth and continue to stick to the issues.

  3. Jason Casey Says:
    September 12th, 2008 at 1:09 am

    Hey, good stuff here. Thanks for the link and thoughts…how are you guys?

  4. Carla Says:
    October 16th, 2008 at 7:05 am

    Hey Mate, have you retained the right to vote in the states? xc

  5. jonah Says:
    October 16th, 2008 at 7:13 am

    Of course!!!

    I voted by mail about three weeks ago.

  6. Carla Says:
    October 23rd, 2008 at 2:00 am

    I thought that would be the answer! Well done for keeping your hand in :) xc

  7. Carla Says:
    November 26th, 2008 at 11:24 am

    Any post election thoughts? xc

  8. Carla Says:
    December 24th, 2008 at 6:17 am

    Merry Christmas Bailey family, lots of love, Steve and Carla xxx

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